Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Election Predictions and My Votes

Election Predictions and My Votes

The August 8th primary is only six days away.

Because I will be working for the Board of Elections as a "Technical Specialist" that day, I voted absentee in-person at the Board on Friday, during the lunch break for the one-day training session for the tech specs.

I voted in the Democratic primary, thusly:

US Senate: Claire McCaskill
State Auditor: Susan Montee
US Rep - Dist 3: Russ Carnahan
State Rep - Dist 59: Jeanette Mott Oxford
Collector of Revenue: Gregg Daly
License Collector: Mike McMillan
Recorder of Deeds: Sharon Quigley Carpenter
Circuit Clerk: Mariano Favazza

Amendment 1 (Conservation Tax Renewal): YES (emphatically!)
Prop G (License Fee Increase): NO
(Two questions:
1) Back so soon? I voted yes in April, but most voters were opposed.
2) If the mayor's plan to spend the dough on more cops and prosecutors is so great, why didn't they write that into the ballot text in the first place? Hopefully, if it fails again and goes on the November ballot, they will. Otherwise, we have no guarantee this fee increase will go anywhere but general revenue and Mike McMillan's office operations slush fund.)

In the races for which I cannot vote, here's what I predict (besides the obvious wins by unopposed candidates):

Democratic primary:
State Senate - Dist 4: Yaphett El-Amin
(admittedly, this one could easily go to Jeff Smith, and even Amber Boykins has a long-shot chance. In a true four-way race (plus Kenny Jones under 10%), it will only take about 25% of the vote to win. We'll find out Tuesday night...)
State Rep - Dist 57: Talibdin (TD) El-Amin
(Others may say Joe Palm, but I kind of think El-Amin has better name recognition districtwide because of his wife.)
State Rep - Dist 58: Rodney Hubbard
(Won't even be close -- although I disagreed with him strongly on the school voucher-lite tax credit bill this past session. Sorry, Bill Haas.)
State Rep - Dist 60: Jamilah Nasheed
(Sorry, Shaun Simms -- you should've changed your last name to Boykins. ;-)

Republican primary:
US Senate: Jim Talent
(Ugh. But remind me, why is Isaiah Hair running?)
State Auditor: 'Colonel' Jack Jackson
(Although who knows what might happen outstate. John Loudon seemed to have a lot of big signs down in Poplar Bluff back in June - but he's so cocky...)
US Rep - Dist 1: Leslie Farr
(But R's should be happy if he hits 35% in November against Lacy Clay)
US Rep - Dist 2: Todd Akin
(Sorry, Sherman Parker, I just don't think it's going to happen this time.)

By the way, what's the point of encoding a primary 'ballot' for the Libertarian and Green parties, when none of the offices are contested. Indeed, the Greens are fielding candidates only for Collector of Revenue and Recorder of Deeds.

I voted for Green candidates in the general election in the past, especially when they were still trying to get ballot status in the city - which they have now done. But even folks whose inclinations are Green and live in MO Senate Dist 4, would be foolish to not vote in such a high-profile Democratic primary.


Travis Reems said...


To answer your question on prop G (the business license tax), the expenditures to fund the police, prosecutors, and others handling problem properties based on the revenue received from the increases are addressed in a companion board bill, not in the prop G bill.

Anonymous said...

Looking back to how Ribaudo helped Bosley win in 1993, you'd think Gambaro would help El-Amin. But the real lesson from 1993 was that the central corridor can decide races between northside and southside camps. Jeff will also win by coming in as a strong third or better in every ward, which, in a multi-candidate race like Tuesday's, is ironically the same way Russ Carnahan won in 2004.